Posts Tagged ‘history’

Swords or Plowshares?

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

The Greeks are out shopping. Not for new ideas on how to trim their budget or how to frugally squeeze every last cent from each euro spent, but on weapons. This comes via Zeit Online, courtesy of Zero Hedge.

The greek military is planning on spending six of the 80 billion euros from the next bailout payment on a pile of military hardware. Sixty jets, some patrol boats, German U-boats, and some apache attack helicopters.

How could they be allowed to spend bailout money on anything other than keeping their economy afloat? They will be allowed to do this, because most of the money will go into France, Germany, the UK, and America. So do not expect the EU to say squat about this, as they are already on thin ice with Germany, and selling U-boats nets a nice tidy profit for German industry.

The people are rioting in the streets, because their government refuses to listen to what the people have to say. The current Greek administration is now firmly in the pocket of the ECB, because they don’t want their names to go into the history books as the last idiot holding the hot potato. The people have no voice, so they won’t stop it.

A smart Greek PM would start beating the drums of nationalism to direct the peoples anger onto another country. I see this as the first overt move of a Euro-nation on the path of militarism. I expect others to follow, some behind-the-scenes (like Germany) a few others a little more obvious (Baltic States) to build up their military in case the EU breaks down.

We are doing the same thing here in America. We have record under-employment and roughly $60,000,000,000,000 in unfunded liabilities. Our GDP is an outright lie, and we have a presidential race that looks like a pack of monkeys trying to proper fuck a greased pig. The military industrial complex is growing like a budgetary tumor.

China is doing the same:

This chart does not include the aircraft carrier they bought off of Russia or it’s refitting and re-armament. Or the new drone or stealth fighter programs.

I have to ask myself why? Why do countries go buy new weapons and field more troops instead of taking care of their economic mess? The reason is simple, and frightening at the same time. The reason countries turn to arms instead of economic responsibility is because it is the path of least resistance.

I will explain, so please give me a minute or two before you decide I have finally gone totally batshit crazy. It certainly is not easier for the population, as they are trod over by invading jackboots, or stuffed into the jackboots and sent somewhere else to do the stomping. It is not easier for the middle class or even the lower upper class.  Who it is easier for is the elite ruling classes – the Bushes, the Kennedys, the Waltons, etc. The Wall street elite are not going to be stuffed into BDU’s and told to storm a beach.

This has repeated itself throughout history. From Babylon, the Greek city-states, Persia, the Hundred-Hear’s war, War of 1812, and even WWII. History does not repeat exactly, but these cycles of social, economic, political, and generational forces cause predictable events that we can plan, and therefore prepare for.

The Black Swan

Monday, January 9th, 2012

I’ve mentioned the term Black Swan Event a few times over the years, but I never properly explained what it means. From wikipedia, the Black Swan theory describes:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
  3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs

In other words, a black swan event is an event that radically changes your world, but it cannot be predicted with certainty. The impending US economy collapse is not a “black swan event” the evidence is all around us, we just cannot determine when the event will occur. the proverbial straw that breaks the camels back, the seemingly insignificant event that kicks of the pre-hyperinflationary panic, would be a black swan event.

These events are the little things that snowball into the looming macro events that affect great, and usually perilous, change. If you traveled back in time to the 27th of June in 1914 and asked if a world war would start tomorrow, then you would be locked up for being mad as a hatter. On the next day, Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, which many historians point to at the start of WWI.

The point of this post is to warn preppers not to waste their time looking for the black swan event. Focus on determining those maco events that are looming on the horizon, and prepare for them, not the tiny and insignificant events that only historians could point to and cry “A-ha! That’s what did it.”

To carry over the WWI example, it was the arms race, the militarization, and nationalism of the European nations that are the macro-level events that are the causes of WWI, not the killing of a man and his wife.

Interesting Post

Thursday, November 3rd, 2011

Courtesy of Zero Hedge, there is an excellent post by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform that illustrates a concept for a post I have been kicking around. The majority of people, especially the elite, think in linear terms. Past to present to future is a straight line, ever upward, with a few dips for recessions, wars, etc.  So a fuzzy line of little wiggles. The rest of humanity thinks in cyclical terms where the past is repeated, with different cycles overlapping. Cycles of oppression and retribution, cycles of profit and loss, cycles of drought, cycles of  mini-ice ages, volcano eruptions, etc.

I think in a much different pattern than most, where past events influence or repeat in their entirety.

Yes I actually took the time to think how I think. That’s the only practical skill I got from the two philosophy courses I took in my short college career.

My current line of thinking is that we might see a three-way civil war, with the OWS vs. the Tea Party vs. the Progressive Elite. I need to do some more digestion before I can post about it, though. I also need to do some field research, which involves me going to the Occupy Boston and Occupy Wall Street (Road Trip!) to chat with the people there. I’ve reached out to my contacts at the BPD to fill me in on what I need to do to be safe, and avoid any problems with the cops. I’m a social chameleon, so I’m not worried about the crowd. More info as I get it.

History Repeats Itself

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

Today is the 245th anniversary of the Stamp Act of 1765. This is one of the tyrannical actions taken by the English government that so pissed off the Colonists that 30 years later war broke out in the colonies.

This health care “reform” is another galvanizing act by a tyrannical government that will force citizens to revolt against the crown federal government.

For if our Trade may be taxed why not our Lands? Why not the Produce of our Lands & every thing we possess or make use of? This we apprehend annihilates our Charter Right to govern & tax ourselves – It strikes our British Privileges, which as we have never forfeited them, we hold in common with our Fellow Subjects who are Natives of Britain: If Taxes are laid upon us in any shape without our having a legal Representation where they are laid, are we not reduced from the Character of free Subjects to the miserable State of tributary Slaves. -Sam Adams

All across this country people are rising up to make the non-representing “representatives” see how we Americans are not as willing to be slaves as they thought. They passed the bill anyway, further proof that the Congress is a mere puppet of special interest groups, not those who they are supposed to represent.

I’m trying to see a way out, but the window of opportunity for us to re-take control of our nation without the use of force is closing. Make no mistake about it, we need to seize control and repeal all of these Collectivist and Statist policies. Otherwise we will be forced to bend a knee to our masters as they drive by in limousines. Our freedom vanquished, our minds imprisoned in drudgery, our world laid waste by corporations that pull the right strings.

I never thought we would see the day, but to see our future you need to look no farther than Brave New World, 1984, or THX 1138.


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